Inflation has made a marked comeback in the last few years with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, and the worldwide easing of restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.
Our proprietary Nowcasters, developed to gather timely data sets in order to build near real-time indicators, show that inflation risk is actually in the process of plateauing but at a very high level from an historical perspective. Inflation has not been this high for 40 years. What had started as a commodity linked-inflation has now shifted to include core inflation components. At the same time, we are contending with the strength of the US dollar as European central banks must curb currency weakness to fight imported inflation. These inflationary forces are having knock-on effect...
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