The global economy has been more resilient than people thought - can it last?

'Something always breaks'

The economic consensus last year was that Europe will enter a recession because of the energy crisis.

While there was less conviction on a US recession, the extreme inversion of the yield curve and the plunge in stock prices last year suggests markets were nervous. Fast-forward to the start of this year, economists are busy revising up their 2023 GDP growth forecasts for major economies. This benign assessment is being challenged again amid the fallout from a couple of bank failures. Although the events are largely idiosyncratic, it is a reminder that as interest rates rise in an abrupt manner, something always breaks. Deep Dive: Market turbulence highlights diversification role of pr...