PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding: Lessons from a year of unexpected economic resilience

'Risk of a downturn in 2024 remains high'

As the end of the year approaches, we reflect on our previous views while updating our 2024 outlook, when we gather in early December for our last cyclical economic forum of the year.

This time last year, we were projecting a mild recession with still above-target inflation for 2023. Our reasoning was that while pandemic-related overhangs, such as excess savings from large government transfers, would help buffer the economy, the speed and magnitude of the correlated monetary policy tightening across developed markets, combined with the European energy price shock, would drag DM economies into a mild contraction. Deep Dive: Did central banks get it right in 2023? We did not get that mild recession. Instead, DM economies, with the exception of the US, have recorde...