Friday Briefing: A US recession was never really off the table

Friday Briefing

Back in May, when markets began to accept that fact that the Federal Reserve was on a different rates path to what they were expecting, investors were confronted with the fact that while the chances of zero rate cuts in 2024 were not high, the fact that it wasn’t zero anymore was significant.

Arguably, a similar phenomenon is happening now, as expectations of a US recession alter from very unlikely to not completely off the table after markets became complacent to the risk of one happening at all. Investors diverge over US recession concerns amid global market sell-off Less than a month ago, managers were bullish that although US monetary policy was too restrictive, the easing could reach the soft landing ‘goldilocks zone'. Forecasts that the most likely outcome for the global economy over the next 12 months will be a "no landing" reached a six-month low of 18%, accordi...