The market is focusing on the reflationary aspects of Trump’s agenda. This means a stronger dollar, higher yields, US equites up, and oil lower.
Whether these moves are sustained will depend on the House election and Trump's economic priorities. Higher nominal GDP growth and higher-than-otherwise interest rates are the macro implications we are most confident about for now. The House race is still uncertain, and the outcome could have significant implications for the eventual macro and market impacts of Trump's presidency. It will decide whether Trump has latitude to pursue legislative changes including significant tax cuts or is constrained to Executive Orders which would see more focus on tariffs. Investors split over ...
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