Quilter Investors' Lindsay James: Learning from last year's mistakes

'Expectations for US economy were far too pessimistic in 2024'

Financial markets are inherently forward-looking creatures, so investment strategists typically spend more time peering around the next corner than looking in the rearview mirror.

Given it is the season for bold predictions about what 2025 might bring for investors, it is worth going through last year's efforts with a red pen and learning from our industry's collective mistakes. The most obvious of these is that expectations for the US economy in 2024 were far too pessimistic. This time last year, the Survey of Professional Forecasters reported that GDP growth in the US was expected to be 1.7% in 2024 – a marked slowdown from the 2.4% growth predicted for 2023. On reflection, they were a rather gloomy bunch as the latest outlook from the International Moneta...