Challenging economic conditions are setting the stage for an interesting year ahead. As the economy slows and the cycle ages, companies will likely face financial headwinds. Although firms are entering the year with solid balance sheets, can high yield issuers weather a downturn?
Solid fundamental starting point
While caution is warranted, we think many high yield companies are well-positioned to navigate a downturn given the solid fundamental starting point. In recent years, high yield companies diligently improved their balance sheets, resulting in the lowest leverage levels in more than a decade (Exhibit 1) and the highest interest coverage ratios in recent history. This fundamental improvement is further evidenced by the ongoing upgrade momentum with rising stars outpacing fallen angels. In addition, the credit quality composition of the market has improved, with the high yield market now being over 50% BBs and roughly 10% in CCCs and below. For context, prior to the great financial crisis, the high yield market included more than 20% in CCCs and below.
Exhibit 1: High yield companies are entering 2023 with historically low leverage
Source: BofA Global Research. As of December 31, 2022. Reflects gross and net leverage as measured by EBITDA over total debt for US high yield companies.
Increasing fundamental pressures
Heading into 2023, the global macroeconomic environment remains extremely uncertain. Higher and potentially rising interest rates, persistent inflation, elevated geopolitical risk, tight energy markets and the effects of an uncertain reopening in China are just a few of the top-of-mind worries. These risks may well lead to further slowing of the US and developed market economies and create financial headwinds for many high yield companies. With a potential recession risk looming on the horizon, high yield companies will likely be facing slowing consumer demand and cutbacks in business investments—both of which could lead to declining revenues. Margins may contract as earnings come under pressure in the slowing economy. In addition, interest coverage ratios are likely to decline as coupon rates reset higher and interest costs increase, especially for issuers with floating rate loans. As a result, we believe fundamental improvement has peaked for many high yield companies.
Weathering an economic slowdown
Despite the cloudy macro outlook, we believe most high yield companies are well-positioned to navigate a slowdown. Balance sheets are generally in decent shape and credit metrics are not stretched for most companies. Additionally, there is no immediate maturity wall that presents a refinancing challenge to companies (Exhibit 2) and overall liquidity levels are good. During the year ahead, we expect that the high yield market will present compelling opportunities to invest in companies with attractive risk-return characteristics.
Exhibit 2: Few near-term maturity concerns
Source: JP Morgan. Reflects the US high yield bond maturity schedule ($bn) as of November 4, 2022.
This post is funded by Aegon Asset Management
For Professional Clients only and not to be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients.
The principal risk of this service is the loss of capital. Please note that other risks will be present.
Opinions and/or example trades/securities represent our understanding of markets both current and historical and are used to promote Aegon Asset Management's investment management capabilities: they are not investment recommendations, research or advice. Sources used are deemed reliable by Aegon Asset Management at the time of writing. Please note that this marketing is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing by Aegon Asset Management or its employees ahead of its publication.
All data is sourced to Aegon Asset Management UK plc unless otherwise stated. The document is accurate at the time of writing but is subject to change without notice.
Data attributed to a third party ("3rd Party Data") is proprietary to that third party and/or other suppliers (the "Data Owner") and is used by Aegon Asset Management under licence. 3rd Party Data: (i) may not be copied or distributed; and (ii) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. None of the Data Owner, Aegon Asset Management or any other person connected to, or from whom Aegon Asset Management sources, 3rd Party Data is liable for any losses or liabilities arising from use of 3rd Party Data.
Aegon Asset Management UK plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
AdTrax: 5065187.3. Exp Date: 31 January 2024.
