3% Treasury yields: A bull-market pause or start of a bear market?

Yield curve continues to flatten

As 10-year Treasury yields tiptoe through the 3% mark and the yield curve continues to flatten, managers have started to weigh-up the possibility of a looming recession while others claim we remain some way off.

After a 'Goldilocks' period in markets in recent years, investors are now forecasting 2018 will be the year where volatility re-emerges - year-to-date markets have become more choppy with the 10-year Treasury yield passing the 3% barrier to trade at 3.022% on 24 April for the first time since January 2014, in response to concerns on US monetary policy and higher-than-expected inflation. Fears subsequently spread to equity markets with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both falling a respective 1.3% to 2,634 points and 1.7% to 24,024 points that same day. As a result, investors have predict...