UBS: Little possibility of 'Frexit' despite 40% chance of Le Pen victory

Downgraded French equities to neutral

UBS Wealth Management has downgraded French equities to neutral as it has assigned a 40% probability of National Front leader Marine Le Pen becoming the next French President.

However, the wealth manager said there was little possibility of France leaving the European Union, saying there is only a 10%-20% likelihood of this happening even if Le Pen did win. The firm pointed to the significant parliamentary and constitutional hurdles which Le Pen would have to overcome in order to leave the EU, while opinion polls show the French public support the single currency. European politics: A distraction or disaster for markets? Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management, said the reason for the downgrade of French equities to neutral was the heightened pol...