SocGen's Edwards: 10-year Treasury yields will fall to -1% in the next recession

Will converge with European and Japanese 10-year yields

Tom Eckett
clock • 2 min read

Société Générale's bearish strategist Albert Edwards has told Investment Week he believes US 10-year Treasury yields will fall to as low as -1%, as he warned of "double bubble trouble" in US markets.

Edwards previously forecast that US 10-year yields will fall below zero but told Investment Week these could go as low as -1% in "the depth of the next recession" as they converge "totally" with Japan and Germany. "Sound ridiculous? German 10-year yields were -0.2% last July," he added. On Monday, rising inflation expectations caused a sell-off in the global bonds markets with spreads in US 10-years widening to 2.73%, the highest point since April 2014. Although Edwards predicted yields to widen beyond 3% first, he said they would drop into into negative territory as the US and Eur...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on Markets

Donald Trump urges EU to purchase US oil and gas or face tariffs

Donald Trump urges EU to purchase US oil and gas or face tariffs

Latest Trump tariff threat

Linus Uhlig
clock 20 December 2024 • 2 min read
Wellington Management's Natasha Brook-Walters: Balancing bumps in the road and big-picture thinking in 2025

Wellington Management's Natasha Brook-Walters: Balancing bumps in the road and big-picture thinking in 2025

Answer lies in 'expanding' focus

Natasha Brook-Walters
clock 20 December 2024 • 5 min read
Outlook 2025: The state of the UK's capital markets as we enter 2025

Outlook 2025: The state of the UK's capital markets as we enter 2025

Capital markets outlook for 2025

Linus Uhlig
clock 19 December 2024 • 1 min read
Trustpilot