Amundi: Sterling could fall below €1 after Brexit completion

First time in history

Analysts at Amundi have predicted sterling will fall below €1 for the first time in history once the UK officially leaves the European Union.

In a note titled Brexit: How the future trade agreement is going to shape financial assets, the analysts said the most likely outcome was an "intermediate relationship" with a free trade in goods but very limited passporting in financial services. This result, which they assigned a 50% probability to, would cause sterling to fall to around €0.95 against the euro and $1.30 against the US dollar, as the UK's trade surplus in financial services would no longer be there to counterbalance the large trade deficit in goods. Sterling is currently trading at €1.13. Didier Borowski, head of mac...