BofAML survey: Managers warn of secular stagnation (but not a recession)

Worst outlook since July 2008

Six out of ten investors predict global GDP growth to weaken over the next year, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) survey, the worst outlook for the global economy since July 2008.

The survey of 234 participants with $645bn assets under management ran between 4-10 January and found net 60% expect growth to slow, lower than the trough in January 2001. Despite this however, just 14% of those surveyed expect an economic recession this year with investors predicting secular stagnation to return in the next two to three quarters rather than a recession. This is highlighted by a decline in inflation expectations in January with just net 19% of respondents predicting global consumer price inflation (CPI) to rise over the next year, the second largest two-month collapse...