Economic commentators' recession indicators are starting to flash amber, on the back of growing fears about tightening global liquidity, the impact of US dollar strength and escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
Oxford Economics warned investors are right to be increasingly nervous as this long period of growth has given a false impression of stability, encouraged risk-taking and led policymakers to underplay risks. Its latest research note argued the risks of a recession or big slowdown, perhaps in 2020, have grown. Possible danger areas include higher-than-expected inflation; an unfavourable policy mix of trade tensions and central banks raising rates faster than market expectations; or tightening global liquidity combined with US dollar strength. Sell signals: Five fund buyers reveal thei...
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