Markets split on ECB meeting outcome after forward guidance abandoned

Rate hike decision tomorrow

Markets are split on the outcome of the European Central Bank interest rate decision tomorrow (14 September), with a lack of forward guidance to indicate how the central bank will move.

Markets are currently pricing in a 68% chance that the ECB raises interest rates by 25bps tomorrow, according to data from Bloomberg. At the start of the month, traders had only priced in a 20% chance of a hike, but reports that the ECB expected inflation to stay above 3% in 2024 this week have strengthened sentiment that more tightening was necessary. Bank of England poised to hike rates again despite UK economic woes After switching its rate setting approach to be data dependent earlier this year, ECB president Christine Lagarde said in July that the central bank was no longer "i...