Markets certain on Fed rate cut following 4.9% inflation in April

Tenth month of decrease

US inflation fell to 4.9% in April, the tenth consecutive month of decrease, pushing markets to bet on a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year.

Markets have now given a 100% probability of a cut by the end of the year, up from 98.9% chance before the inflation numbers were released today (10 May), according to CME Group. Market expectations put a 91.5% chance that the Fed will keep rates steady at their next meeting on 14 June, up from 78.8% before the inflation numbers were released, CME Group added. Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, said that beyond "pockets of price gains" such as in used cars, overall inflation had slowed, giving the Fed ground to hold rates at its next meeting in June. Reg...