The most widely anticipated recession on record

'Next year is likely to be a difficult year'

At a recent pension fund conference, I asked the attendees whether they expected a recession next year. Every single one of them did.

That echoes professional forecasters, who assign the highest probability on record to a recession happening within the next year. I agree, next year is likely to be a difficult year for the economy. A combination of higher mortgage rates and energy prices are likely to cause recessions in the UK, Europe and the US. However, given this recession is so widely forecast and the stock market already sold off sharply in 2022, it suggests that markets already know a recession is coming. Recession looms over markets in 2023 It is sometimes helpful to look at previous market behaviour...