Autumn Statement 2016: Industry reacts to 'topsy turvy spending dogma'

'No radical announcements'

Tom Eckett
clock • 6 min read

The investment industry has called this year's Autumn Statement a "non-event" with Chancellor Philip Hammond merely "tinkering at the edges" rather than introducing any major changes.

In his first and last Autumn Statement, Hammond downgraded UK economic forecasts and cut corporation tax to 17% by 2020, while also unveiling a £23bn infrastructure fund and a three-year NS&I bond paying an interest rate of 2.2%.

However, Colin Morton, manager of the Franklin UK Equity Income fund, said he fell short of introducing needed measures to improve the UK's outlook in a post-Brexit world.

"Today's Autumn Statement has been a somewhat of a non-event. With no radical announcements, there was little said on measures that will help alleviate the pressure on UK consumers next year.

"The Chancellor tinkered at the edges, rather than introducing anything of real substance and the overall picture for 2017 remains a difficult one for the UK." 

Meanwhile, Christopher Mahon (pictured), investment manager and director of asset allocation research at Barings said the Chancellor's infrastructure plan is "upside down".

"Britain seems to be locked into a type of topsy turvy spending dogma which results in the UK's well known productivity stagnation."

Here, the industry gives their reaction to all the key announcement's from today's Autumn Statement:

Economics

Neil Williams, group chief economist at Hermes Investment Management

"First, the deficit is still high. Even including special items like bank sales, QE, and milder interest-rate assumptions, the 3.5%-of-GDP headline deficit for 2016/17 will still be the G7's widest after Japan.

"Second, the recovery should have squeezed the deficit more than it has. While the headline deficit falls, the structural, less growth-sensitive part will fall by less.

Autumn Statement 2016: OBR downgrades UK growth forecasts on Brexit uncertainty; Chancellor unveils £23bn National Productivity fund

"And, only in 2017/18 is the net-debt-to-GDP ratio expected to peak - disappointing given real GDP is about 8% up on its pre-crisis peak. This ratio, at about 90%, is more than twice Japan's was, when Japan limped into a ‘lost decade' in the mid 1990s."

Paul Hollingsworth, economist at Capital Economics

"The big picture is that while the Chancellor put an end to Autumn Statements, he did not put an end to austerity."

"With a goal of achieving a budget balance in the next parliament, austerity is just set to continue for even longer. But a more gradual path of belt-tightening should help the economy to remain resilient."

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown

"What was predictable were the abandonment of the commitment to eradicate the deficit by 2019-20 and the announcement of a mild fiscal stimulus, focused on housing and infrastructure, and with an emphasis on regional development and improving productivity.

"This focus on productivity was welcome, and long overdue. The UK has fallen behind in productivity for too long, though it should be noted that promising to tackle the problem is much easier than finding a solution."

Hetal Mehta, senior european economist at Legal & General Investment Management

"Whether the economy can recover in the medium term back to 2% will depend greatly on how smooth the Brexit process is in the coming years and whether a favourable deal is struck."

More on Economics

Trustpilot